Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120): Cost optimization continued to meet expectations

Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120): Cost optimization continued to meet expectations

Yunda Co., Ltd. (002120): Cost optimization continued to meet expectations
Investment Highlights: Event: Yunda Co., Ltd. releases 2019 third quarter report.The first three quarters of 2019 achieved operating income of 242.530,000 yuan, an increase of 162 in ten years.3%; net profit attributable to mother 19.55 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.3%; deduct non-net profit 17.850,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.61%. Costs continued to be optimized and performance was in line with expectations.From the quarterly perspective, Q1, Q2, Q3 deducted non-net profit growth rates were 30.08%, 20.70%, 24.96%.Overall, the third quarter results were in line with expectations: First, the unit volume continued to grow at a high rate of 41 in Q1, Q2, and Q3.48%, 47.06%, 47%, the market share increased to 16 in the third quarter.1%, and obtained an industry increase of 23% or more.Second, costs continue to be optimized.According to our budget, Q3 single ticket costs 2.Around 78 yuan, of which the single ticket mainline transportation, respectively, and the cost of face-to-face billing have dropped by about 5% each year.Third, the performance of the express transportation has been reduced.In the same period of last year, the impact of express business on non-net profit deduction was zero.2.5 billion US dollars, and after Q2 Express’s external financing, the listed company’s equity in Yunda Express replaced less than 50%. Looking forward to Q4, the single ticket gross profit is expected to usher in a month-on-month increase.First of all, from the perspective of the company, capital expenditures are usually made in Q1 and Q2, and Q3 releases capacity, but the Q3 industry’s unit volume has only increased by 3-4% from Q2. Therefore, due to the pressure of capacity utilization in the short term, listed companies will have price competitionMore intense.Judging from previous years of Yunda, Q3’s single ticket revenue was the lowest, and then Q4 increased sequentially.Second, at present, major companies in the industry have issued high customer books on peak season peak response plans, resetting the express delivery fee from November 11, 2019.From the perspective of the industry, price increase and volume control in the peak season can improve the profitability of Q4 outlets and headquarters. In the long run, behind the difference in the cost of a single ticket for the Tongda department is the difference in capital strength.First, the path of cost reduction of Tongda Department is relatively similar, but the difference in internal hematopoietic capacity will be an important reason that the cost of Tongda Department will always keep the difference.From the perspective of reducing costs, the core lies in increasing the proportion of large-capacity trucks, expanding automated sorting equipment, and ultimately achieving capital expenditures.Second, the capital required 苏州夜网论坛 for capital expenditures comes from self-hematopoiesis and external financing. Differences in the scale of net profit will bring about differences in net cash flow from operating activities.Horizontally comparing the deduction of non-net profit in the first nine months of this year, Yunda, Yuantong Express and Shentong Express were 17 respectively.8.5 billion, 13.7.7 billion and 10.49 million, differentiation has begun to become apparent. Investment Advice.From the industry perspective, the next 1-2 years will be a critical period for the differentiation of existing leaders.In this process, the relatively high business scale, the multiplier effect of single ticket gross profit, and thus the company’s gross profit scale and net profit scale advantage of single ticket cost expenditure gradually expanded.Adjust the profit forecast 天津夜网 for 2019-2021, and estimate that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 is 28.2.9 billion, 33.07 billion and 39.74 ppm (original value of 27.6.1 billion, 33.2.1 billion, 38.8.2 billion), EPS is 1.27 yuan, 1.49 yuan and 1.78 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27 times, 23 times, 19 times, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk warning: Macroeconomics misses expectations, price war exceeds expectations