Jiangsu Thorpe (600746): State-owned old tree opens new flower acetic acid faucet with great flexibility
Recommendation logic: The company’s original ADC foaming agent business was generally profitable. The company intends to issue shares to acquire the Group 120 Stock Exchange and other assets. It will become a leading domestic securities company with a leading industry cost advantage. At the same time, the supply and demand of the acetic acid industry is tightly balanced.Foreign devices are aging, and if the price of acetic acid rises, the company’s performance is extremely flexible.
The second meeting will not change the reorganization resolution: in May 2019, the price of acetic acid dropped sharply to the bottom of the year, which led to the company’s restructuring plan being rejected. The company readjusted the price of acetic acid and other assets from 4.8 深圳spa会所 billion to 4 billion, adjusted on October 10.The post plan has been reviewed by the CSRC.
Strict control of coal consumption, limited increase in acetic acid production capacity: from 2010 to 2013, the rapid expansion of acetic acid production capacity, the cumulative production capacity hovered between 60-70%, through the stability of the industry layout, coupled with coal consumption control and downstream demand growth, the industry operating rate in 2018 increased to80%.
At present, the nominal capacity of domestic acetic acid is 925, the industry CR4 is 47%, and the capacity will be increased by 10 in the next two years. The competition on the supply side is good.
The scale of downstream PTA production is expanded to ensure increased demand for acetic acid: downstream of acetic acid includes PTA, vinyl acetate, vinyl acetate, etc., of which PTA accounts for 25%. In the future, the industry plans to add 3,000 tons of new capacity and 1 ton of PTA will consume 0 acetic acid.
04 tons, corresponding to 120 tons of acetic acid theoretical demand.
Other traditional needs mainly correspond to solvents, coatings, etc., and are expected to maintain a 5% growth rate.
Export demand is gradually returning to normal, and the aging of foreign equipment has hidden dangers: In 2018, the failure of foreign equipment caused the internal acetic acid export to increase to 70 tons, and the price exceeded 5,000 yuan. In 2019, the normal export acetic acid price fell to 2500 yuan / ton, and the Yima equipment failure in the second half of the yearAs domestic maintenance increased and downstream demand picked up, prices rose again to 3,500 yuan / ton.
In the future, it is not ruled out that the problem of foreign installations may bring about another increase in domestic exports.
One of the leading domestic acetic acid companies with huge performance flexibility: After the reorganization is completed, the company will have an acetic acid capacity of 120 inches, becoming a leading domestic acetic acid company, and its cost is in the leading position in the industry, and there is still room for decline.
Calculated based on the initial production and sales of 120, if the price of acetic acid rises by 500 yuan / ton, the profit will increase by 4%.
500 million, great performance flexibility.
Profit forecast and investment recommendations: If the reorganization is completed before the end of 2019, we expect the company’s net profit to be 6-2019.
14 billion, 7.
64 billion, 9.
7.6 billion, without considering asset restructuring, the net profit for 2019-2021 will be -0.
Focus on the company is a domestic acetic acid leader, has a cost advantage in the industry, copyright excess income, and through technology reform will still fall in the future.
At the same time, the company is the purest acetic acid target of A-shares, with great performance elasticity, and for the first time, it has given an “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the progress of asset restructuring may be less than expected; the risk of a sharp fall in the price of the securities; the force majeure risk of the device.